Republicans have won House seats in North Carolina One was a replacement vote One was a duo vote a little complicated. We'll get into all the nitty-gritty, but the big question is was this good or bad for Republicans and Trump and there's actually a good argument that it could be bad news and that it could be good. News Democrats thought they might be able to flip one of these seats because the margins and the polling shows getting narrow But in the end the Republicans win which could show that Trump will hold the space and it's good news women in 2020 however The Democrats did close a very wide gap from 12 points to two points and so it could be good news. The Democrats are gaining on Republicans in the next year or so can make enough gains to start winning back seats in the House or defeating Donald Trump will read through all of this and I'll give you the breakdown of what's going on with Dan Bishop narrowly winning that special election But I also wanna talk about polls Why are the polls so wrong This was considered to be a test for Donald Trump if they're Lost it would have been very, very bad news, but they won so there's a small side of relief However there's other news coming out about polls showing that it should have gone the other way Trump then slams the polls rest muse and put out something really interesting about Donald Trump I believe Trump Trump campaign threatening legal action against ABC causing them to reverse a poll and come back with an inverted result The reason this is interesting is that studies in the past have shown us that poll results can swing Voters and if people believe their side can't win it won't go out and vote which is interesting because all of these approval ratings and all these polls keep showing Trump in the gutter except Rasmussen and arrest music accurately predicted the popular vote are they the only one telling the truth or are they biased and trying to support Donald Trump That's the big question. I can't give you all the answers I can break things down for you and show you the the research where they claim polls do this So let's get started with the first big The victory in North Carolina for Republicans and why people are saying it is good news for Republicans before we get started head over to Tim Cast dot com slash donate to support my work. There's a PayPal option, a crypto option to physical option but the best thing you can do just share this video for a lot of reasons YouTube DC ranks independent political commentary which means I'm competing not only with the big giants like CNN MSNBC Fox News, but YouTube is helping them and hurting me It's unfortunate but if you think i do a good job and you like me better then mam just share this video out over come that article with your support i think you to grow and do i do a train from vlcc and politics yes yes actually seen on purpose to work with the daily why are right here i wanna show kind of mix to be on things republican nearly wins closely watch north carolina special congratulate election seen reports they say i not called ninth district special congress election this game for public and in Victory in the GOP leaning district where President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2016 the race drew National attention as a potential 2020 bellwether in a district that stretched from the Charlotte suburbs to the military town of Fayetteville Trump and vice President Mike Pence both made eleventh hour trips to the district on Monday in an effort to bolster Bishop The duo over special election came after the State Board of Elections refused to certify the 2018 House race results in the district after fraud allegations ordering a new election Trump was not on the This is significant I'll get to it but Bishop's narrow victory in a race widely viewed as a referendum on the White House will provide a small measure of comfort to Republicans in 2020 Republicans normally would have expected to dominate in a district that Trump won but data released to the public ahead of the Tuesday vote showed a close race underscoring GOP troubles in the suburbs during the Trump era The President's approval rating in a number of recent polls is approaching lows not seen since not seen since 2017 I'm gonna push back on this but I wanna show you this story from Politico Why Republicans Breathe a sigh of relief after North Carolina win Now, I wanna make sure I stress This is very fair. Criticism do not underestimate the Democrats gains in these places but there is a potential explanation I'm not telling you which one you should should pick, but I just wanted to provide that nuance They say Republicans went all in to keep a hold of a key Congressional district with a special election Tuesday And they won But they still have good reason to be concerned about the result while the GOP can celebrate the election of a new Congressman Dan Bishop his too Victory in a district President Donald Trump, carried by 12 points in 2016, continues a worry some trend for the party which suffered heavy losses in the 2018 midterms And he's not seeing the political environment approved as Trump gears up for reelection They say Trump Cannot win a second term without improving his political position and Democrats know it casting. Bishop's narrow end is a sign of progress in North Carolina, but hold on there While you can fairly state that could be the case I also wanna point something else out Trump was not on the ballot That's important because many people believe Trump has changed the Republican Party old school GOP voters Some of them went to Hillary. Some of them have left and Trump invigorated new voters That means the first time when Trump carries a 12 point lead in 2016 People are coming out for Trump when Stan Bishop Trump supporters might not come out for this guy. They don't know him they like Trump in which case you don't see the support So while it's possible to say Democrats are making gains in this district it's also fair to That Trump's new voters people who haven't voted before or independents and moderates who don't care about Dan Bishop didn't show up at the polls I read one piece of data I know I've references a lot I I don't have it pulled up They talked about how I believe was the New York Times in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out and that's bad news for Trump They like the guy enough to come and vote for him but not enough to come out and vote for General Republicans which means in 20 If Trump's base comes out I know I said this a couple of times in the past few days they're gonna check the box across the board and that's really really good news for Republicans that could be a reason why they may retake the House but it's also possible. The polls are right now Here's the thing It's a very very complicated circumstance where all the polls seem to show Trump underwater They claim the Democrats are gonna win and it is a fact that when people see polls like this they give up if they think they can't win, they don't bother interestingly Many people believe Hillary Clinton lost because everyone was so sure she was gonna win They didn't bother Perhaps the extreme ends of either Paul can be bad news for a candidate showing a neck and neck race might be the most important thing but I will stress in my opinion. I think Trump supporters don't care about polls That's why Trump won they claimed he was a loser. He couldn't win But Trump voters don't care their new voters They don't care for the establishment They came out to vote because they felt good Trump supporters Been having a big old party the whole time now obviously they face like orange man bad in the media nonstop but there's a viral video going around again I don't I don't have this pull up. You should check it out where this dude got a massive Maga hat and like film themselves walking around is going viral because they're having a good time They're proud They like what they're doing and they're gonna show up and vote regardless of what the media tells them But I wanna highlight this the daily wire frames it more as good news and I don't wanna just show these outlets saying it's bad news. The Daily Wire daily wire obviously being conservative, says Trump passes test in North Carolina Republic Win both congressional seats from this perspective, it's fair to say it doesn't matter what the margins are Republicans win and if Republicans can win even by these margins in 2020 it's a good news for Trump That was the test How are people feeling in a suburbs Will people support Trump and my personal opinion I think all of us are relevant I think Trump's Trump's voters his supporters don't vote Don't come out for Republicans. Not many of them do some. Don't some just want to vote for Trump so they're not paying attention to this stuff 2020 will be a different story The media is gonna light up and it'll be really interesting Well, let's talk about polls Here's what I really wanna get into apparently actually actually I think it's here or or maybe okay, there's a couple different stories Daily wire reports want proof media polls are phony Look at just look at what just happened in North Carolina and they highlight that Trump calls themselves. I think they have the tweets from and he said The other day ABC Washington Post poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 election when my lawyers protest They took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day It was a fake poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlet sad one of the greatest and most powerful weapons used by the fake and corrupt news media is the phony polling information they put out Many of these polls are fixed or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad internal polling looks great the best ever So here's the thing I'm not gonna I'm I'm I'm I'm not gonna agree with Trump on this one I don't I don't think it's necessarily a conspiracy It could just be there They're bad at what they do Okay there's a thing I like talking about called the Gilman Amnesia Effect You read the news all day every day and you think hey, these stories are really interesting. I didn't know Trump did that I didn't know Trump said that then all of a sudden you get to a story about you something maybe your profession. Let's say you're a plumber You find a story that says plumbers outraged over new law proposed in Pennsylvania and you're like wait a minute I'm a plumber I'm in Pennsylvania You read the story and go What is this This is ridiculous. It's wrong This happens to Everyone, when they read stories about something they're interested in or good at or themselves for the longest time Wikipedia My look become claimed. I invented this plane No idea why it's so ridiculous and absurd Gallman Amnesia effect refers to people seeing that story assuming it's assuming the news is true until they see a story about them Realizing the news is fake news and it's bad or what they do turning the page and completely forgetting the simple solution is thus these companies Polling wrong they're pulling wrong. They're not calling the right households They are not working with the Internet and they're ignoring the areas that Trump targets If Trump goes to one area and says vote for me and then they pull in a different area It wouldn't make sense. Would it now? I'm not I'm using it as a metaphor. What I mean is when Trump goes online and rally support across the country Where do you then call Who do you call what business? What age group It seems to me at the polls are wrong Now it's possible it is entirely possible there is a conspiracy i'd like to entertain that because extraordinary claim for quite store near drains regardless of that however it is true that polls do swing boxes and it was getting all i will show some of the state of coming up in a second i want to make this point rest news reports they typically shower more favorable out come for donald trump the latest well rest news and job provide from the earth and a stop at forty seven percent of providing not great you know below fifty but way better then also the post okay i b ed tet In at the end of August I jump at 30 - nine political morning consult just a day earlier on on the seventh to the eighth has Trump at 40 - three. Here's what's interesting. West Music tweeted this out the other day talking about how polls that that the the the incorrect polls responding to Donald Trump's tweets. Let's read this recipes and said we recently published some 2016 National Polling comparative work for the final month of the election The ABC Wabba Washington Post late 2016 polling track record taken One that we review what is new today is that we now know that the Trump campaign threatened legal action against ABC weapon after their October twentieth to 20 -third of 611 likely voters D plus 12 poll Seven days later they rerun their survey but this time with 1120 - five likely voters yielding a Republican plus one result This was a 13 point flip in about one week towards candidate Trump, who had never led in their late 2016 National polling Sample and likely other factors apparently had a truly remarkable impact Now you're gonna have to convince me that either the poll was wrong Let me let me rephrase this Okay they're arguing that something happened or I would say one of the arguments that something happened in seven days that caused 13 percent of people decide to vote for Trump instead so as that poll was wrong some profound you know moment happened that got Trump a huge surge in the polls or the pole When I say the polls are wrong, I should say it's either something happened or the polls are wrong Okay That was terrible I apologize what I'm trying to say is the way they conduct their polls was bad They change what they did It clearly wasn't the result of some major news incident that would be absurd recipes and said Not to be outdone The Associated Press immediately followed the ABC Wahoo D, plus 12, with its own October twentieth to 20 -fourth survey of 1212 likely voters showing D plus 14 D plus Say with an exclamation point no word as to whether they received a similar legal gram from the Trump campaign the AP, that never released a final 2016 election poll not an uncommon phenom from some of the media's most promoted gold standard pollster names ABC Waco did make a final popular vote margin election prediction Hillary Clinton, by four Hillary Clinton then won the 2016 presidential popular vote by two points precisely As we told our readers she would with all of this above as a subject update here then is the link to 2016 Race polling analysis The point is if they thought Democrats were gonna flip this seat in North Carolina if they thought Clinton was gonna win by four if they thought Democrats initially would win by 14, but they were all wrong and rest Munson got the popular vote right and West Music currently holds Trump more favorably than any other poll Maybe arrest museum is correct and everyone else is wrong Many people have stated. However, that risk Munson is just biased supporting Donald Trump and being more favorable to him But I gotta admit if we're if we're gonna avoid Okay I'm not gonna pretend like CNN look I think CNN doesn't like the President I think that's that's fair to say but I'm not gonna pretend like all of these other polls are purposefully trying to manipulate popular opinion by convincing people. Trump can't win I think they're just really really bad at what they do I do think there are biased people at these companies but for the most part they're bad at what they do If we start from that standard No conspiracies No intent to deceive Then we're left with one conclusion Rest. Munson was right In 2016 and so therefore I'd be I'd I'd I would rather bet unrest music being right today than any of these other polls that were wrong especially A B C News ABC. I'm sorry A B C News Washington Post but here's what I wanna show you take a look at this Now This is just this study right here Look at Canada in 1980 - eight. This is just one bit of data but there has been there have been many other studies that have shown this to be the case they say in University of Michigan We have assessed the impact of polls in the 1980 - eight Canadian elections through three different approaches. First a campaign pooled data analysis. I'm not gonna read you the needy greedy. I wanna say the findings emerging from these three sets of announces converge on four main conclusions polls affected voters, perceptions of the various parties, chances of winning that one 's obvious polls affected the vote That's interesting polls affected strategic voting as some voters became less inclined to support a party whose Appeared slim polls did not have a contagion effect since voters did not come to evaluate the parties and leaders who are doing well in the polls more positively What we can see here The negative polls about Trump at least according to this study would likely make people not want to turn up and vote That could be a reason why they you know We're seeing a 12 point lead from Trump in 2016 dropped to a two point lead a two point victory margin for the Republican but we also have a story 2014 from the Washington Post opinion, polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies and it's not just about Trump It's about literally everything so when they come out and claim that everyone is supporting the Green New deal then apparently people will hold a bias and they'll support it because they wanna be like everybody else But instead of taking my thoughts let's just read this story from The Washington Post. It's from 2014 They say public opinion sometimes changes quickly over relatively short periods of time, for instance support for same sex marriage and substantially increased to becoming a majority view Past few years while support for the death penalty has been steadily declining these rapid shifts of the product of people actually changing their views rather than just cohort replacement younger people replacing older ones in the population What causes the opinion? Cascades obviously new information about policies and position taking taking by political elites play a role but people may also change their opinions by observing their fellow citizens when they learn from public opinion polls that majorities in favor of public policy are growing they may jump on the bandwagon Also support these policies this could be because they want to feel like or accepted They could be learning from the wisdom of crowds or they may want to resolve cognitive dissonance by supporting what will most likely become the policy anyway In addition to polls, there are numerous other sources for people to learn about collective opinion such as aggregated forecasts and prediction markets These recent phenomenon have raised the question of whether the measurement of public opinion can itself influence public public opinion so they going to talk A bunch of results but let's read this. They say the effect was not constant across issues We observe the highest effect for the free trade issue 13 point five points so so let's let's skip the Radium. Read this We offer three related suggestive reasons whether it's the case people are more likely to start out ambivalent on the issue of free trade making them more susceptible to new information So I I apologize they're talking about pulling people on specific issues. I jumped at that because I just wanna talk about the results so keep that in mind people were unsure Of existing public opinion on free trade meaning that the polling information had more of an opportunity to have an effect free trade is not defined as much along partisan lines and people have weaker partisan previous positions on the issue Hence learning about majority opinion can cause attitude shifts but the effects are strongest among people without well-defined prior support who are previously uninformed in public opinion And if the policy question is not highly partisan take that data what does it mean independent uninitiated People who don't care for any politics and don't watch are looking at the polls and seeing that everybody hates Trump and are likely to go Yeah. Okay, I'll vote against them Maybe that's why people believe there is a conspiracy to put out fake polls to smear Trump and it's really strange that Trump threatened threatened legal action and they changed by 13 points It could just be the companies are bad at what they do but in the end I think one thing is there's only one thing that matters for some reason even with this being true even though we know polls can Opinions even the polls say Trump is doing bad and they say Trump can't win Trump still won He still won in 2016 Something happened apparently made a lot of people really really angry I can only assume the same thing will happen again in 2020 I mean why wouldn't it Trump's base is growing? The economy is doing really great and they keep saying all these really bad things But rest Museum was right on the money with the popular vote So I bet on them and they have Trump's approval rating at 40 - seven as of the past few days, just a couple of days ago in which Rating is much higher than many of the Democrats and especially Congress so Will Trump win whether or not North Carolina is a real test of whether or not Trump can win I think based on what we saw in 2016 based on everything I just presented I think the answer is yes so the reason I highlight the polls and manipulating opinion is not too claim a conspiracy quite the opposite I don't think it's conspiracy but I do think it's fair to point out The Neptune of media is misleading people their failures to accurately pull people to understand what's happening is misleading people Swaying opinion and it is bad for our Democratic constitutional Republic and I mean Democratic because we use Democratic voting institutions to to elect officials to represent our public It's I know everyone's gonna get mad at me for saying that okay, whatever I'm done You get the point Republicans are breathing a small sigh of relief in this in in North Carolina So we'll see what happens I don't know if the test really mattered Trump voters are gonna come out cuz they like Trump and no matter what anyone else says and the Democrats you better consider this next segment will be coming up YouTube dot com slash Tim Cast News at Six PM Thanks for hanging out and I will see you all there Trump Has "Passed The Test" with TWO Republican Victories In North Carolina | Facebook, Trump Has "Passed The Test" with TWO Republican Victories In North Carolina, 426572094646219, Download Facebook video and save them to your devices to play anytime for free"> Republicans have won House seats in North Carolina One was a replacement vote One was a duo vote a little complicated. We'll get into all the nitty-gritty, but the big question is was this good or bad for Republicans and Trump and there's actually a good argument that it could be bad news and that it could be good. News Democrats thought they might be able to flip one of these seats because the margins and the polling shows getting narrow But in the end the Republicans win which could show that Trump will hold the space and it's good news women in 2020 however The Democrats did close a very wide gap from 12 points to two points and so it could be good news. The Democrats are gaining on Republicans in the next year or so can make enough gains to start winning back seats in the House or defeating Donald Trump will read through all of this and I'll give you the breakdown of what's going on with Dan Bishop narrowly winning that special election But I also wanna talk about polls Why are the polls so wrong This was considered to be a test for Donald Trump if they're Lost it would have been very, very bad news, but they won so there's a small side of relief However there's other news coming out about polls showing that it should have gone the other way Trump then slams the polls rest muse and put out something really interesting about Donald Trump I believe Trump Trump campaign threatening legal action against ABC causing them to reverse a poll and come back with an inverted result The reason this is interesting is that studies in the past have shown us that poll results can swing Voters and if people believe their side can't win it won't go out and vote which is interesting because all of these approval ratings and all these polls keep showing Trump in the gutter except Rasmussen and arrest music accurately predicted the popular vote are they the only one telling the truth or are they biased and trying to support Donald Trump That's the big question. I can't give you all the answers I can break things down for you and show you the the research where they claim polls do this So let's get started with the first big The victory in North Carolina for Republicans and why people are saying it is good news for Republicans before we get started head over to Tim Cast dot com slash donate to support my work. There's a PayPal option, a crypto option to physical option but the best thing you can do just share this video for a lot of reasons YouTube DC ranks independent political commentary which means I'm competing not only with the big giants like CNN MSNBC Fox News, but YouTube is helping them and hurting me It's unfortunate but if you think i do a good job and you like me better then mam just share this video out over come that article with your support i think you to grow and do i do a train from vlcc and politics yes yes actually seen on purpose to work with the daily why are right here i wanna show kind of mix to be on things republican nearly wins closely watch north carolina special congratulate election seen reports they say i not called ninth district special congress election this game for public and in Victory in the GOP leaning district where President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2016 the race drew National attention as a potential 2020 bellwether in a district that stretched from the Charlotte suburbs to the military town of Fayetteville Trump and vice President Mike Pence both made eleventh hour trips to the district on Monday in an effort to bolster Bishop The duo over special election came after the State Board of Elections refused to certify the 2018 House race results in the district after fraud allegations ordering a new election Trump was not on the This is significant I'll get to it but Bishop's narrow victory in a race widely viewed as a referendum on the White House will provide a small measure of comfort to Republicans in 2020 Republicans normally would have expected to dominate in a district that Trump won but data released to the public ahead of the Tuesday vote showed a close race underscoring GOP troubles in the suburbs during the Trump era The President's approval rating in a number of recent polls is approaching lows not seen since not seen since 2017 I'm gonna push back on this but I wanna show you this story from Politico Why Republicans Breathe a sigh of relief after North Carolina win Now, I wanna make sure I stress This is very fair. Criticism do not underestimate the Democrats gains in these places but there is a potential explanation I'm not telling you which one you should should pick, but I just wanted to provide that nuance They say Republicans went all in to keep a hold of a key Congressional district with a special election Tuesday And they won But they still have good reason to be concerned about the result while the GOP can celebrate the election of a new Congressman Dan Bishop his too Victory in a district President Donald Trump, carried by 12 points in 2016, continues a worry some trend for the party which suffered heavy losses in the 2018 midterms And he's not seeing the political environment approved as Trump gears up for reelection They say Trump Cannot win a second term without improving his political position and Democrats know it casting. Bishop's narrow end is a sign of progress in North Carolina, but hold on there While you can fairly state that could be the case I also wanna point something else out Trump was not on the ballot That's important because many people believe Trump has changed the Republican Party old school GOP voters Some of them went to Hillary. Some of them have left and Trump invigorated new voters That means the first time when Trump carries a 12 point lead in 2016 People are coming out for Trump when Stan Bishop Trump supporters might not come out for this guy. They don't know him they like Trump in which case you don't see the support So while it's possible to say Democrats are making gains in this district it's also fair to That Trump's new voters people who haven't voted before or independents and moderates who don't care about Dan Bishop didn't show up at the polls I read one piece of data I know I've references a lot I I don't have it pulled up They talked about how I believe was the New York Times in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out and that's bad news for Trump They like the guy enough to come and vote for him but not enough to come out and vote for General Republicans which means in 20 If Trump's base comes out I know I said this a couple of times in the past few days they're gonna check the box across the board and that's really really good news for Republicans that could be a reason why they may retake the House but it's also possible. The polls are right now Here's the thing It's a very very complicated circumstance where all the polls seem to show Trump underwater They claim the Democrats are gonna win and it is a fact that when people see polls like this they give up if they think they can't win, they don't bother interestingly Many people believe Hillary Clinton lost because everyone was so sure she was gonna win They didn't bother Perhaps the extreme ends of either Paul can be bad news for a candidate showing a neck and neck race might be the most important thing but I will stress in my opinion. I think Trump supporters don't care about polls That's why Trump won they claimed he was a loser. He couldn't win But Trump voters don't care their new voters They don't care for the establishment They came out to vote because they felt good Trump supporters Been having a big old party the whole time now obviously they face like orange man bad in the media nonstop but there's a viral video going around again I don't I don't have this pull up. You should check it out where this dude got a massive Maga hat and like film themselves walking around is going viral because they're having a good time They're proud They like what they're doing and they're gonna show up and vote regardless of what the media tells them But I wanna highlight this the daily wire frames it more as good news and I don't wanna just show these outlets saying it's bad news. The Daily Wire daily wire obviously being conservative, says Trump passes test in North Carolina Republic Win both congressional seats from this perspective, it's fair to say it doesn't matter what the margins are Republicans win and if Republicans can win even by these margins in 2020 it's a good news for Trump That was the test How are people feeling in a suburbs Will people support Trump and my personal opinion I think all of us are relevant I think Trump's Trump's voters his supporters don't vote Don't come out for Republicans. Not many of them do some. Don't some just want to vote for Trump so they're not paying attention to this stuff 2020 will be a different story The media is gonna light up and it'll be really interesting Well, let's talk about polls Here's what I really wanna get into apparently actually actually I think it's here or or maybe okay, there's a couple different stories Daily wire reports want proof media polls are phony Look at just look at what just happened in North Carolina and they highlight that Trump calls themselves. I think they have the tweets from and he said The other day ABC Washington Post poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 election when my lawyers protest They took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day It was a fake poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlet sad one of the greatest and most powerful weapons used by the fake and corrupt news media is the phony polling information they put out Many of these polls are fixed or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad internal polling looks great the best ever So here's the thing I'm not gonna I'm I'm I'm I'm not gonna agree with Trump on this one I don't I don't think it's necessarily a conspiracy It could just be there They're bad at what they do Okay there's a thing I like talking about called the Gilman Amnesia Effect You read the news all day every day and you think hey, these stories are really interesting. I didn't know Trump did that I didn't know Trump said that then all of a sudden you get to a story about you something maybe your profession. Let's say you're a plumber You find a story that says plumbers outraged over new law proposed in Pennsylvania and you're like wait a minute I'm a plumber I'm in Pennsylvania You read the story and go What is this This is ridiculous. It's wrong This happens to Everyone, when they read stories about something they're interested in or good at or themselves for the longest time Wikipedia My look become claimed. I invented this plane No idea why it's so ridiculous and absurd Gallman Amnesia effect refers to people seeing that story assuming it's assuming the news is true until they see a story about them Realizing the news is fake news and it's bad or what they do turning the page and completely forgetting the simple solution is thus these companies Polling wrong they're pulling wrong. They're not calling the right households They are not working with the Internet and they're ignoring the areas that Trump targets If Trump goes to one area and says vote for me and then they pull in a different area It wouldn't make sense. Would it now? I'm not I'm using it as a metaphor. What I mean is when Trump goes online and rally support across the country Where do you then call Who do you call what business? What age group It seems to me at the polls are wrong Now it's possible it is entirely possible there is a conspiracy i'd like to entertain that because extraordinary claim for quite store near drains regardless of that however it is true that polls do swing boxes and it was getting all i will show some of the state of coming up in a second i want to make this point rest news reports they typically shower more favorable out come for donald trump the latest well rest news and job provide from the earth and a stop at forty seven percent of providing not great you know below fifty but way better then also the post okay i b ed tet In at the end of August I jump at 30 - nine political morning consult just a day earlier on on the seventh to the eighth has Trump at 40 - three. Here's what's interesting. West Music tweeted this out the other day talking about how polls that that the the the incorrect polls responding to Donald Trump's tweets. Let's read this recipes and said we recently published some 2016 National Polling comparative work for the final month of the election The ABC Wabba Washington Post late 2016 polling track record taken One that we review what is new today is that we now know that the Trump campaign threatened legal action against ABC weapon after their October twentieth to 20 -third of 611 likely voters D plus 12 poll Seven days later they rerun their survey but this time with 1120 - five likely voters yielding a Republican plus one result This was a 13 point flip in about one week towards candidate Trump, who had never led in their late 2016 National polling Sample and likely other factors apparently had a truly remarkable impact Now you're gonna have to convince me that either the poll was wrong Let me let me rephrase this Okay they're arguing that something happened or I would say one of the arguments that something happened in seven days that caused 13 percent of people decide to vote for Trump instead so as that poll was wrong some profound you know moment happened that got Trump a huge surge in the polls or the pole When I say the polls are wrong, I should say it's either something happened or the polls are wrong Okay That was terrible I apologize what I'm trying to say is the way they conduct their polls was bad They change what they did It clearly wasn't the result of some major news incident that would be absurd recipes and said Not to be outdone The Associated Press immediately followed the ABC Wahoo D, plus 12, with its own October twentieth to 20 -fourth survey of 1212 likely voters showing D plus 14 D plus Say with an exclamation point no word as to whether they received a similar legal gram from the Trump campaign the AP, that never released a final 2016 election poll not an uncommon phenom from some of the media's most promoted gold standard pollster names ABC Waco did make a final popular vote margin election prediction Hillary Clinton, by four Hillary Clinton then won the 2016 presidential popular vote by two points precisely As we told our readers she would with all of this above as a subject update here then is the link to 2016 Race polling analysis The point is if they thought Democrats were gonna flip this seat in North Carolina if they thought Clinton was gonna win by four if they thought Democrats initially would win by 14, but they were all wrong and rest Munson got the popular vote right and West Music currently holds Trump more favorably than any other poll Maybe arrest museum is correct and everyone else is wrong Many people have stated. However, that risk Munson is just biased supporting Donald Trump and being more favorable to him But I gotta admit if we're if we're gonna avoid Okay I'm not gonna pretend like CNN look I think CNN doesn't like the President I think that's that's fair to say but I'm not gonna pretend like all of these other polls are purposefully trying to manipulate popular opinion by convincing people. Trump can't win I think they're just really really bad at what they do I do think there are biased people at these companies but for the most part they're bad at what they do If we start from that standard No conspiracies No intent to deceive Then we're left with one conclusion Rest. Munson was right In 2016 and so therefore I'd be I'd I'd I would rather bet unrest music being right today than any of these other polls that were wrong especially A B C News ABC. I'm sorry A B C News Washington Post but here's what I wanna show you take a look at this Now This is just this study right here Look at Canada in 1980 - eight. This is just one bit of data but there has been there have been many other studies that have shown this to be the case they say in University of Michigan We have assessed the impact of polls in the 1980 - eight Canadian elections through three different approaches. First a campaign pooled data analysis. I'm not gonna read you the needy greedy. I wanna say the findings emerging from these three sets of announces converge on four main conclusions polls affected voters, perceptions of the various parties, chances of winning that one 's obvious polls affected the vote That's interesting polls affected strategic voting as some voters became less inclined to support a party whose Appeared slim polls did not have a contagion effect since voters did not come to evaluate the parties and leaders who are doing well in the polls more positively What we can see here The negative polls about Trump at least according to this study would likely make people not want to turn up and vote That could be a reason why they you know We're seeing a 12 point lead from Trump in 2016 dropped to a two point lead a two point victory margin for the Republican but we also have a story 2014 from the Washington Post opinion, polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies and it's not just about Trump It's about literally everything so when they come out and claim that everyone is supporting the Green New deal then apparently people will hold a bias and they'll support it because they wanna be like everybody else But instead of taking my thoughts let's just read this story from The Washington Post. It's from 2014 They say public opinion sometimes changes quickly over relatively short periods of time, for instance support for same sex marriage and substantially increased to becoming a majority view Past few years while support for the death penalty has been steadily declining these rapid shifts of the product of people actually changing their views rather than just cohort replacement younger people replacing older ones in the population What causes the opinion? Cascades obviously new information about policies and position taking taking by political elites play a role but people may also change their opinions by observing their fellow citizens when they learn from public opinion polls that majorities in favor of public policy are growing they may jump on the bandwagon Also support these policies this could be because they want to feel like or accepted They could be learning from the wisdom of crowds or they may want to resolve cognitive dissonance by supporting what will most likely become the policy anyway In addition to polls, there are numerous other sources for people to learn about collective opinion such as aggregated forecasts and prediction markets These recent phenomenon have raised the question of whether the measurement of public opinion can itself influence public public opinion so they going to talk A bunch of results but let's read this. They say the effect was not constant across issues We observe the highest effect for the free trade issue 13 point five points so so let's let's skip the Radium. Read this We offer three related suggestive reasons whether it's the case people are more likely to start out ambivalent on the issue of free trade making them more susceptible to new information So I I apologize they're talking about pulling people on specific issues. I jumped at that because I just wanna talk about the results so keep that in mind people were unsure Of existing public opinion on free trade meaning that the polling information had more of an opportunity to have an effect free trade is not defined as much along partisan lines and people have weaker partisan previous positions on the issue Hence learning about majority opinion can cause attitude shifts but the effects are strongest among people without well-defined prior support who are previously uninformed in public opinion And if the policy question is not highly partisan take that data what does it mean independent uninitiated People who don't care for any politics and don't watch are looking at the polls and seeing that everybody hates Trump and are likely to go Yeah. Okay, I'll vote against them Maybe that's why people believe there is a conspiracy to put out fake polls to smear Trump and it's really strange that Trump threatened threatened legal action and they changed by 13 points It could just be the companies are bad at what they do but in the end I think one thing is there's only one thing that matters for some reason even with this being true even though we know polls can Opinions even the polls say Trump is doing bad and they say Trump can't win Trump still won He still won in 2016 Something happened apparently made a lot of people really really angry I can only assume the same thing will happen again in 2020 I mean why wouldn't it Trump's base is growing? The economy is doing really great and they keep saying all these really bad things But rest Museum was right on the money with the popular vote So I bet on them and they have Trump's approval rating at 40 - seven as of the past few days, just a couple of days ago in which Rating is much higher than many of the Democrats and especially Congress so Will Trump win whether or not North Carolina is a real test of whether or not Trump can win I think based on what we saw in 2016 based on everything I just presented I think the answer is yes so the reason I highlight the polls and manipulating opinion is not too claim a conspiracy quite the opposite I don't think it's conspiracy but I do think it's fair to point out The Neptune of media is misleading people their failures to accurately pull people to understand what's happening is misleading people Swaying opinion and it is bad for our Democratic constitutional Republic and I mean Democratic because we use Democratic voting institutions to to elect officials to represent our public It's I know everyone's gonna get mad at me for saying that okay, whatever I'm done You get the point Republicans are breathing a small sigh of relief in this in in North Carolina So we'll see what happens I don't know if the test really mattered Trump voters are gonna come out cuz they like Trump and no matter what anyone else says and the Democrats you better consider this next segment will be coming up YouTube dot com slash Tim Cast News at Six PM Thanks for hanging out and I will see you all there"> Republicans have won House seats in North Carolina One was a replacement vote One was a duo vote a little complicated. We'll get into all the nitty-gritty, but the big question is was this good or bad for Republicans and Trump and there's actually a good argument that it could be bad news and that it could be good. News Democrats thought they might be able to flip one of these seats because the margins and the polling shows getting narrow But in the end the Republicans win which could show that Trump will hold the space and it's good news women in 2020 however The Democrats did close a very wide gap from 12 points to two points and so it could be good news. The Democrats are gaining on Republicans in the next year or so can make enough gains to start winning back seats in the House or defeating Donald Trump will read through all of this and I'll give you the breakdown of what's going on with Dan Bishop narrowly winning that special election But I also wanna talk about polls Why are the polls so wrong This was considered to be a test for Donald Trump if they're Lost it would have been very, very bad news, but they won so there's a small side of relief However there's other news coming out about polls showing that it should have gone the other way Trump then slams the polls rest muse and put out something really interesting about Donald Trump I believe Trump Trump campaign threatening legal action against ABC causing them to reverse a poll and come back with an inverted result The reason this is interesting is that studies in the past have shown us that poll results can swing Voters and if people believe their side can't win it won't go out and vote which is interesting because all of these approval ratings and all these polls keep showing Trump in the gutter except Rasmussen and arrest music accurately predicted the popular vote are they the only one telling the truth or are they biased and trying to support Donald Trump That's the big question. I can't give you all the answers I can break things down for you and show you the the research where they claim polls do this So let's get started with the first big The victory in North Carolina for Republicans and why people are saying it is good news for Republicans before we get started head over to Tim Cast dot com slash donate to support my work. There's a PayPal option, a crypto option to physical option but the best thing you can do just share this video for a lot of reasons YouTube DC ranks independent political commentary which means I'm competing not only with the big giants like CNN MSNBC Fox News, but YouTube is helping them and hurting me It's unfortunate but if you think i do a good job and you like me better then mam just share this video out over come that article with your support i think you to grow and do i do a train from vlcc and politics yes yes actually seen on purpose to work with the daily why are right here i wanna show kind of mix to be on things republican nearly wins closely watch north carolina special congratulate election seen reports they say i not called ninth district special congress election this game for public and in Victory in the GOP leaning district where President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2016 the race drew National attention as a potential 2020 bellwether in a district that stretched from the Charlotte suburbs to the military town of Fayetteville Trump and vice President Mike Pence both made eleventh hour trips to the district on Monday in an effort to bolster Bishop The duo over special election came after the State Board of Elections refused to certify the 2018 House race results in the district after fraud allegations ordering a new election Trump was not on the This is significant I'll get to it but Bishop's narrow victory in a race widely viewed as a referendum on the White House will provide a small measure of comfort to Republicans in 2020 Republicans normally would have expected to dominate in a district that Trump won but data released to the public ahead of the Tuesday vote showed a close race underscoring GOP troubles in the suburbs during the Trump era The President's approval rating in a number of recent polls is approaching lows not seen since not seen since 2017 I'm gonna push back on this but I wanna show you this story from Politico Why Republicans Breathe a sigh of relief after North Carolina win Now, I wanna make sure I stress This is very fair. Criticism do not underestimate the Democrats gains in these places but there is a potential explanation I'm not telling you which one you should should pick, but I just wanted to provide that nuance They say Republicans went all in to keep a hold of a key Congressional district with a special election Tuesday And they won But they still have good reason to be concerned about the result while the GOP can celebrate the election of a new Congressman Dan Bishop his too Victory in a district President Donald Trump, carried by 12 points in 2016, continues a worry some trend for the party which suffered heavy losses in the 2018 midterms And he's not seeing the political environment approved as Trump gears up for reelection They say Trump Cannot win a second term without improving his political position and Democrats know it casting. Bishop's narrow end is a sign of progress in North Carolina, but hold on there While you can fairly state that could be the case I also wanna point something else out Trump was not on the ballot That's important because many people believe Trump has changed the Republican Party old school GOP voters Some of them went to Hillary. Some of them have left and Trump invigorated new voters That means the first time when Trump carries a 12 point lead in 2016 People are coming out for Trump when Stan Bishop Trump supporters might not come out for this guy. They don't know him they like Trump in which case you don't see the support So while it's possible to say Democrats are making gains in this district it's also fair to That Trump's new voters people who haven't voted before or independents and moderates who don't care about Dan Bishop didn't show up at the polls I read one piece of data I know I've references a lot I I don't have it pulled up They talked about how I believe was the New York Times in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out and that's bad news for Trump They like the guy enough to come and vote for him but not enough to come out and vote for General Republicans which means in 20 If Trump's base comes out I know I said this a couple of times in the past few days they're gonna check the box across the board and that's really really good news for Republicans that could be a reason why they may retake the House but it's also possible. The polls are right now Here's the thing It's a very very complicated circumstance where all the polls seem to show Trump underwater They claim the Democrats are gonna win and it is a fact that when people see polls like this they give up if they think they can't win, they don't bother interestingly Many people believe Hillary Clinton lost because everyone was so sure she was gonna win They didn't bother Perhaps the extreme ends of either Paul can be bad news for a candidate showing a neck and neck race might be the most important thing but I will stress in my opinion. I think Trump supporters don't care about polls That's why Trump won they claimed he was a loser. He couldn't win But Trump voters don't care their new voters They don't care for the establishment They came out to vote because they felt good Trump supporters Been having a big old party the whole time now obviously they face like orange man bad in the media nonstop but there's a viral video going around again I don't I don't have this pull up. You should check it out where this dude got a massive Maga hat and like film themselves walking around is going viral because they're having a good time They're proud They like what they're doing and they're gonna show up and vote regardless of what the media tells them But I wanna highlight this the daily wire frames it more as good news and I don't wanna just show these outlets saying it's bad news. The Daily Wire daily wire obviously being conservative, says Trump passes test in North Carolina Republic Win both congressional seats from this perspective, it's fair to say it doesn't matter what the margins are Republicans win and if Republicans can win even by these margins in 2020 it's a good news for Trump That was the test How are people feeling in a suburbs Will people support Trump and my personal opinion I think all of us are relevant I think Trump's Trump's voters his supporters don't vote Don't come out for Republicans. Not many of them do some. Don't some just want to vote for Trump so they're not paying attention to this stuff 2020 will be a different story The media is gonna light up and it'll be really interesting Well, let's talk about polls Here's what I really wanna get into apparently actually actually I think it's here or or maybe okay, there's a couple different stories Daily wire reports want proof media polls are phony Look at just look at what just happened in North Carolina and they highlight that Trump calls themselves. I think they have the tweets from and he said The other day ABC Washington Post poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 election when my lawyers protest They took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day It was a fake poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlet sad one of the greatest and most powerful weapons used by the fake and corrupt news media is the phony polling information they put out Many of these polls are fixed or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad internal polling looks great the best ever So here's the thing I'm not gonna I'm I'm I'm I'm not gonna agree with Trump on this one I don't I don't think it's necessarily a conspiracy It could just be there They're bad at what they do Okay there's a thing I like talking about called the Gilman Amnesia Effect You read the news all day every day and you think hey, these stories are really interesting. I didn't know Trump did that I didn't know Trump said that then all of a sudden you get to a story about you something maybe your profession. Let's say you're a plumber You find a story that says plumbers outraged over new law proposed in Pennsylvania and you're like wait a minute I'm a plumber I'm in Pennsylvania You read the story and go What is this This is ridiculous. It's wrong This happens to Everyone, when they read stories about something they're interested in or good at or themselves for the longest time Wikipedia My look become claimed. I invented this plane No idea why it's so ridiculous and absurd Gallman Amnesia effect refers to people seeing that story assuming it's assuming the news is true until they see a story about them Realizing the news is fake news and it's bad or what they do turning the page and completely forgetting the simple solution is thus these companies Polling wrong they're pulling wrong. They're not calling the right households They are not working with the Internet and they're ignoring the areas that Trump targets If Trump goes to one area and says vote for me and then they pull in a different area It wouldn't make sense. Would it now? I'm not I'm using it as a metaphor. What I mean is when Trump goes online and rally support across the country Where do you then call Who do you call what business? What age group It seems to me at the polls are wrong Now it's possible it is entirely possible there is a conspiracy i'd like to entertain that because extraordinary claim for quite store near drains regardless of that however it is true that polls do swing boxes and it was getting all i will show some of the state of coming up in a second i want to make this point rest news reports they typically shower more favorable out come for donald trump the latest well rest news and job provide from the earth and a stop at forty seven percent of providing not great you know below fifty but way better then also the post okay i b ed tet In at the end of August I jump at 30 - nine political morning consult just a day earlier on on the seventh to the eighth has Trump at 40 - three. Here's what's interesting. West Music tweeted this out the other day talking about how polls that that the the the incorrect polls responding to Donald Trump's tweets. Let's read this recipes and said we recently published some 2016 National Polling comparative work for the final month of the election The ABC Wabba Washington Post late 2016 polling track record taken One that we review what is new today is that we now know that the Trump campaign threatened legal action against ABC weapon after their October twentieth to 20 -third of 611 likely voters D plus 12 poll Seven days later they rerun their survey but this time with 1120 - five likely voters yielding a Republican plus one result This was a 13 point flip in about one week towards candidate Trump, who had never led in their late 2016 National polling Sample and likely other factors apparently had a truly remarkable impact Now you're gonna have to convince me that either the poll was wrong Let me let me rephrase this Okay they're arguing that something happened or I would say one of the arguments that something happened in seven days that caused 13 percent of people decide to vote for Trump instead so as that poll was wrong some profound you know moment happened that got Trump a huge surge in the polls or the pole When I say the polls are wrong, I should say it's either something happened or the polls are wrong Okay That was terrible I apologize what I'm trying to say is the way they conduct their polls was bad They change what they did It clearly wasn't the result of some major news incident that would be absurd recipes and said Not to be outdone The Associated Press immediately followed the ABC Wahoo D, plus 12, with its own October twentieth to 20 -fourth survey of 1212 likely voters showing D plus 14 D plus Say with an exclamation point no word as to whether they received a similar legal gram from the Trump campaign the AP, that never released a final 2016 election poll not an uncommon phenom from some of the media's most promoted gold standard pollster names ABC Waco did make a final popular vote margin election prediction Hillary Clinton, by four Hillary Clinton then won the 2016 presidential popular vote by two points precisely As we told our readers she would with all of this above as a subject update here then is the link to 2016 Race polling analysis The point is if they thought Democrats were gonna flip this seat in North Carolina if they thought Clinton was gonna win by four if they thought Democrats initially would win by 14, but they were all wrong and rest Munson got the popular vote right and West Music currently holds Trump more favorably than any other poll Maybe arrest museum is correct and everyone else is wrong Many people have stated. However, that risk Munson is just biased supporting Donald Trump and being more favorable to him But I gotta admit if we're if we're gonna avoid Okay I'm not gonna pretend like CNN look I think CNN doesn't like the President I think that's that's fair to say but I'm not gonna pretend like all of these other polls are purposefully trying to manipulate popular opinion by convincing people. Trump can't win I think they're just really really bad at what they do I do think there are biased people at these companies but for the most part they're bad at what they do If we start from that standard No conspiracies No intent to deceive Then we're left with one conclusion Rest. Munson was right In 2016 and so therefore I'd be I'd I'd I would rather bet unrest music being right today than any of these other polls that were wrong especially A B C News ABC. I'm sorry A B C News Washington Post but here's what I wanna show you take a look at this Now This is just this study right here Look at Canada in 1980 - eight. This is just one bit of data but there has been there have been many other studies that have shown this to be the case they say in University of Michigan We have assessed the impact of polls in the 1980 - eight Canadian elections through three different approaches. First a campaign pooled data analysis. I'm not gonna read you the needy greedy. I wanna say the findings emerging from these three sets of announces converge on four main conclusions polls affected voters, perceptions of the various parties, chances of winning that one 's obvious polls affected the vote That's interesting polls affected strategic voting as some voters became less inclined to support a party whose Appeared slim polls did not have a contagion effect since voters did not come to evaluate the parties and leaders who are doing well in the polls more positively What we can see here The negative polls about Trump at least according to this study would likely make people not want to turn up and vote That could be a reason why they you know We're seeing a 12 point lead from Trump in 2016 dropped to a two point lead a two point victory margin for the Republican but we also have a story 2014 from the Washington Post opinion, polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies and it's not just about Trump It's about literally everything so when they come out and claim that everyone is supporting the Green New deal then apparently people will hold a bias and they'll support it because they wanna be like everybody else But instead of taking my thoughts let's just read this story from The Washington Post. It's from 2014 They say public opinion sometimes changes quickly over relatively short periods of time, for instance support for same sex marriage and substantially increased to becoming a majority view Past few years while support for the death penalty has been steadily declining these rapid shifts of the product of people actually changing their views rather than just cohort replacement younger people replacing older ones in the population What causes the opinion? Cascades obviously new information about policies and position taking taking by political elites play a role but people may also change their opinions by observing their fellow citizens when they learn from public opinion polls that majorities in favor of public policy are growing they may jump on the bandwagon Also support these policies this could be because they want to feel like or accepted They could be learning from the wisdom of crowds or they may want to resolve cognitive dissonance by supporting what will most likely become the policy anyway In addition to polls, there are numerous other sources for people to learn about collective opinion such as aggregated forecasts and prediction markets These recent phenomenon have raised the question of whether the measurement of public opinion can itself influence public public opinion so they going to talk A bunch of results but let's read this. They say the effect was not constant across issues We observe the highest effect for the free trade issue 13 point five points so so let's let's skip the Radium. Read this We offer three related suggestive reasons whether it's the case people are more likely to start out ambivalent on the issue of free trade making them more susceptible to new information So I I apologize they're talking about pulling people on specific issues. I jumped at that because I just wanna talk about the results so keep that in mind people were unsure Of existing public opinion on free trade meaning that the polling information had more of an opportunity to have an effect free trade is not defined as much along partisan lines and people have weaker partisan previous positions on the issue Hence learning about majority opinion can cause attitude shifts but the effects are strongest among people without well-defined prior support who are previously uninformed in public opinion And if the policy question is not highly partisan take that data what does it mean independent uninitiated People who don't care for any politics and don't watch are looking at the polls and seeing that everybody hates Trump and are likely to go Yeah. Okay, I'll vote against them Maybe that's why people believe there is a conspiracy to put out fake polls to smear Trump and it's really strange that Trump threatened threatened legal action and they changed by 13 points It could just be the companies are bad at what they do but in the end I think one thing is there's only one thing that matters for some reason even with this being true even though we know polls can Opinions even the polls say Trump is doing bad and they say Trump can't win Trump still won He still won in 2016 Something happened apparently made a lot of people really really angry I can only assume the same thing will happen again in 2020 I mean why wouldn't it Trump's base is growing? The economy is doing really great and they keep saying all these really bad things But rest Museum was right on the money with the popular vote So I bet on them and they have Trump's approval rating at 40 - seven as of the past few days, just a couple of days ago in which Rating is much higher than many of the Democrats and especially Congress so Will Trump win whether or not North Carolina is a real test of whether or not Trump can win I think based on what we saw in 2016 based on everything I just presented I think the answer is yes so the reason I highlight the polls and manipulating opinion is not too claim a conspiracy quite the opposite I don't think it's conspiracy but I do think it's fair to point out The Neptune of media is misleading people their failures to accurately pull people to understand what's happening is misleading people Swaying opinion and it is bad for our Democratic constitutional Republic and I mean Democratic because we use Democratic voting institutions to to elect officials to represent our public It's I know everyone's gonna get mad at me for saying that okay, whatever I'm done You get the point Republicans are breathing a small sigh of relief in this in in North Carolina So we'll see what happens I don't know if the test really mattered Trump voters are gonna come out cuz they like Trump and no matter what anyone else says and the Democrats you better consider this next segment will be coming up YouTube dot com slash Tim Cast News at Six PM Thanks for hanging out and I will see you all there" />

Trump Has "Passed The Test" with TWO Republican Victories In North Carolina | Facebook

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Trump Has "Passed The Test" with TWO Republican Victories In North Carolina
Republicans have won House seats in North Carolina One was a replacement vote One was a duo vote a little complicated. We'll get into all the nitty-gritty, but the big question is was this good or bad for Republicans and Trump and there's actually a good argument that it could be bad news and that it could be good. News Democrats thought they might be able to flip one of these seats because the margins and the polling shows getting narrow But in the end the Republicans win which could show that Trump will hold the space and it's good news women in 2020 however The Democrats did close a very wide gap from 12 points to two points and so it could be good news. The Democrats are gaining on Republicans in the next year or so can make enough gains to start winning back seats in the House or defeating Donald Trump will read through all of this and I'll give you the breakdown of what's going on with Dan Bishop narrowly winning that special election But I also wanna talk about polls Why are the polls so wrong This was considered to be a test for Donald Trump if they're Lost it would have been very, very bad news, but they won so there's a small side of relief However there's other news coming out about polls showing that it should have gone the other way Trump then slams the polls rest muse and put out something really interesting about Donald Trump I believe Trump Trump campaign threatening legal action against ABC causing them to reverse a poll and come back with an inverted result The reason this is interesting is that studies in the past have shown us that poll results can swing Voters and if people believe their side can't win it won't go out and vote which is interesting because all of these approval ratings and all these polls keep showing Trump in the gutter except Rasmussen and arrest music accurately predicted the popular vote are they the only one telling the truth or are they biased and trying to support Donald Trump That's the big question. I can't give you all the answers I can break things down for you and show you the the research where they claim polls do this So let's get started with the first big The victory in North Carolina for Republicans and why people are saying it is good news for Republicans before we get started head over to Tim Cast dot com slash donate to support my work. There's a PayPal option, a crypto option to physical option but the best thing you can do just share this video for a lot of reasons YouTube DC ranks independent political commentary which means I'm competing not only with the big giants like CNN MSNBC Fox News, but YouTube is helping them and hurting me It's unfortunate but if you think i do a good job and you like me better then mam just share this video out over come that article with your support i think you to grow and do i do a train from vlcc and politics yes yes actually seen on purpose to work with the daily why are right here i wanna show kind of mix to be on things republican nearly wins closely watch north carolina special congratulate election seen reports they say i not called ninth district special congress election this game for public and in Victory in the GOP leaning district where President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2016 the race drew National attention as a potential 2020 bellwether in a district that stretched from the Charlotte suburbs to the military town of Fayetteville Trump and vice President Mike Pence both made eleventh hour trips to the district on Monday in an effort to bolster Bishop The duo over special election came after the State Board of Elections refused to certify the 2018 House race results in the district after fraud allegations ordering a new election Trump was not on the This is significant I'll get to it but Bishop's narrow victory in a race widely viewed as a referendum on the White House will provide a small measure of comfort to Republicans in 2020 Republicans normally would have expected to dominate in a district that Trump won but data released to the public ahead of the Tuesday vote showed a close race underscoring GOP troubles in the suburbs during the Trump era The President's approval rating in a number of recent polls is approaching lows not seen since not seen since 2017 I'm gonna push back on this but I wanna show you this story from Politico Why Republicans Breathe a sigh of relief after North Carolina win Now, I wanna make sure I stress This is very fair. Criticism do not underestimate the Democrats gains in these places but there is a potential explanation I'm not telling you which one you should should pick, but I just wanted to provide that nuance They say Republicans went all in to keep a hold of a key Congressional district with a special election Tuesday And they won But they still have good reason to be concerned about the result while the GOP can celebrate the election of a new Congressman Dan Bishop his too Victory in a district President Donald Trump, carried by 12 points in 2016, continues a worry some trend for the party which suffered heavy losses in the 2018 midterms And he's not seeing the political environment approved as Trump gears up for reelection They say Trump Cannot win a second term without improving his political position and Democrats know it casting. Bishop's narrow end is a sign of progress in North Carolina, but hold on there While you can fairly state that could be the case I also wanna point something else out Trump was not on the ballot That's important because many people believe Trump has changed the Republican Party old school GOP voters Some of them went to Hillary. Some of them have left and Trump invigorated new voters That means the first time when Trump carries a 12 point lead in 2016 People are coming out for Trump when Stan Bishop Trump supporters might not come out for this guy. They don't know him they like Trump in which case you don't see the support So while it's possible to say Democrats are making gains in this district it's also fair to That Trump's new voters people who haven't voted before or independents and moderates who don't care about Dan Bishop didn't show up at the polls I read one piece of data I know I've references a lot I I don't have it pulled up They talked about how I believe was the New York Times in 2018 Trump voters did not turn out and that's bad news for Trump They like the guy enough to come and vote for him but not enough to come out and vote for General Republicans which means in 20 If Trump's base comes out I know I said this a couple of times in the past few days they're gonna check the box across the board and that's really really good news for Republicans that could be a reason why they may retake the House but it's also possible. The polls are right now Here's the thing It's a very very complicated circumstance where all the polls seem to show Trump underwater They claim the Democrats are gonna win and it is a fact that when people see polls like this they give up if they think they can't win, they don't bother interestingly Many people believe Hillary Clinton lost because everyone was so sure she was gonna win They didn't bother Perhaps the extreme ends of either Paul can be bad news for a candidate showing a neck and neck race might be the most important thing but I will stress in my opinion. I think Trump supporters don't care about polls That's why Trump won they claimed he was a loser. He couldn't win But Trump voters don't care their new voters They don't care for the establishment They came out to vote because they felt good Trump supporters Been having a big old party the whole time now obviously they face like orange man bad in the media nonstop but there's a viral video going around again I don't I don't have this pull up. You should check it out where this dude got a massive Maga hat and like film themselves walking around is going viral because they're having a good time They're proud They like what they're doing and they're gonna show up and vote regardless of what the media tells them But I wanna highlight this the daily wire frames it more as good news and I don't wanna just show these outlets saying it's bad news. The Daily Wire daily wire obviously being conservative, says Trump passes test in North Carolina Republic Win both congressional seats from this perspective, it's fair to say it doesn't matter what the margins are Republicans win and if Republicans can win even by these margins in 2020 it's a good news for Trump That was the test How are people feeling in a suburbs Will people support Trump and my personal opinion I think all of us are relevant I think Trump's Trump's voters his supporters don't vote Don't come out for Republicans. Not many of them do some. Don't some just want to vote for Trump so they're not paying attention to this stuff 2020 will be a different story The media is gonna light up and it'll be really interesting Well, let's talk about polls Here's what I really wanna get into apparently actually actually I think it's here or or maybe okay, there's a couple different stories Daily wire reports want proof media polls are phony Look at just look at what just happened in North Carolina and they highlight that Trump calls themselves. I think they have the tweets from and he said The other day ABC Washington Post poll was the worst and most inaccurate poll of any taken prior to the 2016 election when my lawyers protest They took a 12 point down and brought it to almost even by Election Day It was a fake poll by two very bad and dangerous media outlet sad one of the greatest and most powerful weapons used by the fake and corrupt news media is the phony polling information they put out Many of these polls are fixed or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad internal polling looks great the best ever So here's the thing I'm not gonna I'm I'm I'm I'm not gonna agree with Trump on this one I don't I don't think it's necessarily a conspiracy It could just be there They're bad at what they do Okay there's a thing I like talking about called the Gilman Amnesia Effect You read the news all day every day and you think hey, these stories are really interesting. I didn't know Trump did that I didn't know Trump said that then all of a sudden you get to a story about you something maybe your profession. Let's say you're a plumber You find a story that says plumbers outraged over new law proposed in Pennsylvania and you're like wait a minute I'm a plumber I'm in Pennsylvania You read the story and go What is this This is ridiculous. It's wrong This happens to Everyone, when they read stories about something they're interested in or good at or themselves for the longest time Wikipedia My look become claimed. I invented this plane No idea why it's so ridiculous and absurd Gallman Amnesia effect refers to people seeing that story assuming it's assuming the news is true until they see a story about them Realizing the news is fake news and it's bad or what they do turning the page and completely forgetting the simple solution is thus these companies Polling wrong they're pulling wrong. They're not calling the right households They are not working with the Internet and they're ignoring the areas that Trump targets If Trump goes to one area and says vote for me and then they pull in a different area It wouldn't make sense. Would it now? I'm not I'm using it as a metaphor. What I mean is when Trump goes online and rally support across the country Where do you then call Who do you call what business? What age group It seems to me at the polls are wrong Now it's possible it is entirely possible there is a conspiracy i'd like to entertain that because extraordinary claim for quite store near drains regardless of that however it is true that polls do swing boxes and it was getting all i will show some of the state of coming up in a second i want to make this point rest news reports they typically shower more favorable out come for donald trump the latest well rest news and job provide from the earth and a stop at forty seven percent of providing not great you know below fifty but way better then also the post okay i b ed tet In at the end of August I jump at 30 - nine political morning consult just a day earlier on on the seventh to the eighth has Trump at 40 - three. Here's what's interesting. West Music tweeted this out the other day talking about how polls that that the the the incorrect polls responding to Donald Trump's tweets. Let's read this recipes and said we recently published some 2016 National Polling comparative work for the final month of the election The ABC Wabba Washington Post late 2016 polling track record taken One that we review what is new today is that we now know that the Trump campaign threatened legal action against ABC weapon after their October twentieth to 20 -third of 611 likely voters D plus 12 poll Seven days later they rerun their survey but this time with 1120 - five likely voters yielding a Republican plus one result This was a 13 point flip in about one week towards candidate Trump, who had never led in their late 2016 National polling Sample and likely other factors apparently had a truly remarkable impact Now you're gonna have to convince me that either the poll was wrong Let me let me rephrase this Okay they're arguing that something happened or I would say one of the arguments that something happened in seven days that caused 13 percent of people decide to vote for Trump instead so as that poll was wrong some profound you know moment happened that got Trump a huge surge in the polls or the pole When I say the polls are wrong, I should say it's either something happened or the polls are wrong Okay That was terrible I apologize what I'm trying to say is the way they conduct their polls was bad They change what they did It clearly wasn't the result of some major news incident that would be absurd recipes and said Not to be outdone The Associated Press immediately followed the ABC Wahoo D, plus 12, with its own October twentieth to 20 -fourth survey of 1212 likely voters showing D plus 14 D plus Say with an exclamation point no word as to whether they received a similar legal gram from the Trump campaign the AP, that never released a final 2016 election poll not an uncommon phenom from some of the media's most promoted gold standard pollster names ABC Waco did make a final popular vote margin election prediction Hillary Clinton, by four Hillary Clinton then won the 2016 presidential popular vote by two points precisely As we told our readers she would with all of this above as a subject update here then is the link to 2016 Race polling analysis The point is if they thought Democrats were gonna flip this seat in North Carolina if they thought Clinton was gonna win by four if they thought Democrats initially would win by 14, but they were all wrong and rest Munson got the popular vote right and West Music currently holds Trump more favorably than any other poll Maybe arrest museum is correct and everyone else is wrong Many people have stated. However, that risk Munson is just biased supporting Donald Trump and being more favorable to him But I gotta admit if we're if we're gonna avoid Okay I'm not gonna pretend like CNN look I think CNN doesn't like the President I think that's that's fair to say but I'm not gonna pretend like all of these other polls are purposefully trying to manipulate popular opinion by convincing people. Trump can't win I think they're just really really bad at what they do I do think there are biased people at these companies but for the most part they're bad at what they do If we start from that standard No conspiracies No intent to deceive Then we're left with one conclusion Rest. Munson was right In 2016 and so therefore I'd be I'd I'd I would rather bet unrest music being right today than any of these other polls that were wrong especially A B C News ABC. I'm sorry A B C News Washington Post but here's what I wanna show you take a look at this Now This is just this study right here Look at Canada in 1980 - eight. This is just one bit of data but there has been there have been many other studies that have shown this to be the case they say in University of Michigan We have assessed the impact of polls in the 1980 - eight Canadian elections through three different approaches. First a campaign pooled data analysis. I'm not gonna read you the needy greedy. I wanna say the findings emerging from these three sets of announces converge on four main conclusions polls affected voters, perceptions of the various parties, chances of winning that one 's obvious polls affected the vote That's interesting polls affected strategic voting as some voters became less inclined to support a party whose Appeared slim polls did not have a contagion effect since voters did not come to evaluate the parties and leaders who are doing well in the polls more positively What we can see here The negative polls about Trump at least according to this study would likely make people not want to turn up and vote That could be a reason why they you know We're seeing a 12 point lead from Trump in 2016 dropped to a two point lead a two point victory margin for the Republican but we also have a story 2014 from the Washington Post opinion, polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies and it's not just about Trump It's about literally everything so when they come out and claim that everyone is supporting the Green New deal then apparently people will hold a bias and they'll support it because they wanna be like everybody else But instead of taking my thoughts let's just read this story from The Washington Post. It's from 2014 They say public opinion sometimes changes quickly over relatively short periods of time, for instance support for same sex marriage and substantially increased to becoming a majority view Past few years while support for the death penalty has been steadily declining these rapid shifts of the product of people actually changing their views rather than just cohort replacement younger people replacing older ones in the population What causes the opinion? Cascades obviously new information about policies and position taking taking by political elites play a role but people may also change their opinions by observing their fellow citizens when they learn from public opinion polls that majorities in favor of public policy are growing they may jump on the bandwagon Also support these policies this could be because they want to feel like or accepted They could be learning from the wisdom of crowds or they may want to resolve cognitive dissonance by supporting what will most likely become the policy anyway In addition to polls, there are numerous other sources for people to learn about collective opinion such as aggregated forecasts and prediction markets These recent phenomenon have raised the question of whether the measurement of public opinion can itself influence public public opinion so they going to talk A bunch of results but let's read this. They say the effect was not constant across issues We observe the highest effect for the free trade issue 13 point five points so so let's let's skip the Radium. Read this We offer three related suggestive reasons whether it's the case people are more likely to start out ambivalent on the issue of free trade making them more susceptible to new information So I I apologize they're talking about pulling people on specific issues. I jumped at that because I just wanna talk about the results so keep that in mind people were unsure Of existing public opinion on free trade meaning that the polling information had more of an opportunity to have an effect free trade is not defined as much along partisan lines and people have weaker partisan previous positions on the issue Hence learning about majority opinion can cause attitude shifts but the effects are strongest among people without well-defined prior support who are previously uninformed in public opinion And if the policy question is not highly partisan take that data what does it mean independent uninitiated People who don't care for any politics and don't watch are looking at the polls and seeing that everybody hates Trump and are likely to go Yeah. Okay, I'll vote against them Maybe that's why people believe there is a conspiracy to put out fake polls to smear Trump and it's really strange that Trump threatened threatened legal action and they changed by 13 points It could just be the companies are bad at what they do but in the end I think one thing is there's only one thing that matters for some reason even with this being true even though we know polls can Opinions even the polls say Trump is doing bad and they say Trump can't win Trump still won He still won in 2016 Something happened apparently made a lot of people really really angry I can only assume the same thing will happen again in 2020 I mean why wouldn't it Trump's base is growing? The economy is doing really great and they keep saying all these really bad things But rest Museum was right on the money with the popular vote So I bet on them and they have Trump's approval rating at 40 - seven as of the past few days, just a couple of days ago in which Rating is much higher than many of the Democrats and especially Congress so Will Trump win whether or not North Carolina is a real test of whether or not Trump can win I think based on what we saw in 2016 based on everything I just presented I think the answer is yes so the reason I highlight the polls and manipulating opinion is not too claim a conspiracy quite the opposite I don't think it's conspiracy but I do think it's fair to point out The Neptune of media is misleading people their failures to accurately pull people to understand what's happening is misleading people Swaying opinion and it is bad for our Democratic constitutional Republic and I mean Democratic because we use Democratic voting institutions to to elect officials to represent our public It's I know everyone's gonna get mad at me for saying that okay, whatever I'm done You get the point Republicans are breathing a small sigh of relief in this in in North Carolina So we'll see what happens I don't know if the test really mattered Trump voters are gonna come out cuz they like Trump and no matter what anyone else says and the Democrats you better consider this next segment will be coming up YouTube dot com slash Tim Cast News at Six PM Thanks for hanging out and I will see you all there

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