COVID Lockdown Will Cause Trump HISTORIC Defeat According To Economic Model | Facebook
COVID Lockdown Will Cause Trump HISTORIC Defeat According To Economic Model, But I Don't Believe it
Economic forecast for the the November November general general general election election election election. has has has come come come out, out out, saying saying saying Donald Trump will will lose lose in in in a a a landslide. landslide landslide landslide pulling pulling pulling pulling in in in in. only only only 33 percent percent of of of the the the popular popular popular. popular vote. vote. vote. Joe Joe Joe Biden is going to have a a historic historic historic victory victory victory and and and and why why why why because because because because the the economy is terrible terrible and and and typically. typically typically typically political political political parties parties parties parties faced faced face. faced an an an economic crisis crisis do do not not win. win win. Now. Now. Now, Of Of of course. course, course, course, we're we're we're seeing seeing seeing seeing many many. many many people many news outlets outlets prop prop this this up up saying saying this this is is it. it Donald Trump is gonna lose. I don't buy it right now. 538 is once again asking. Will this be a blue wave year? What hold on a second well Well first for those who aren't familiar 530 - eight the famous pollsters They're kind of Center left for the most part, but they asked us just over a week ago about 10 days ago. Are we going to see signs of a blue wave? if these two special elections turn out favorably for Democrats, we may see the Democratic Democratic advantage advantage on on paper paper prove prove they're going to. they're going to win in November. The Republicans crushed it flipping a Democratic district with a 21 point swing from Democrat to Republican, so why would they keep coming out with news? saying Trump is gonna lose. I honestly have no idea. I understand the economic forecast model. This makes sense to me. Donald Trump is going to lose if the economy is bad. The economy isn't bad because because of some mistake, Trump made made the the economy economy is is is bad bad bad because because because. governors governors governors are locking down their economies and the people are prot. In fact, there's a very high profile story right where I live a gym refusing to stay close and the government coming after them even the governor right now Donald Trump's approval rating on the economy is above water. It's around 51 or 52 percent, so how does it make sense? I think the problem we hear are the problem We have here is that when it comes to this economic forecast models, they don't understand cultural issues or causation. They simply say hey when economies are bad President's lose. But maybe it's because when. Are bad in most circumstances, the President had something to do with it. and if right now we're looking at a President who got us three plus years of a booming economy, Why would the American people doubt him now? At the same time? you have people in media ragging on Trump blaming him for everything When it's the governors. I mean the hotspot is New-york and Andrew Cuomo is responsible for this. I understand outside of China outside of China and Cuomo is responsible for this. why is that the media writing puff pieces and propping them up? This is why I don't believe this. I do not, I believe Donald Trump is likely to win now, prediction models and bedding models have it pretty close pretty even but I think what we're seeing here is an example of what I've been talking about over the past couple of weeks, 538 says. We're gonna see a blue wave. The evidence shows are coming right way for the Republicans and then sure enough. they write another story saying Wait, no blue wave. I get it keep up keep up the morale, but let's break this down. I wanna go to their arguments and hey listen, I could be dead wrong. I'm just giving you my personal opinion. We're talking about economic forecast models right well. I have to think I'm gonna be right on this one. of course, I thought I was gonna be right during the midterms and boy was I ever so wrong. So let's read this and try and give it a fair assessment from CNN Business. Trump will lose in a landslide because the economy new election model predicts before we get started head over to Tims dot com slash donate. If you'd like to support my work, there are many ways you can give, but the best thing you can do. share this video cuz we'll have a real debate about this. I mean that seriously a lot of people are probably anti-trump. a lot of people are pro Trump. Let's take a look at what CNN has to say some of these other sources. I'll give you my opinion and then in the comments you guys can discuss. Do you think Donald Trump is really gonna lose now If you just wanna watch hit the subscribe button, the like button and notification Bell. hopefully That'll be enough for YouTube to recommend the video to you. But let's read the news from CNN, CNN they. they they report report the the economy economy. economy economy has has has gone from President Donald Donald Trump's Trump's greatest greatest greatest political political political political asset asset asset asset to to. to to perhaps perhaps perhaps his his his biggest biggest. biggest weakness. weakness. unemployment is spy. In an unprecedented rate, consumer spending is vanishing and GDP is collapsing. history shows that dreadful economic trends like these spelled doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection. the coro Iris recession will cause Trump to suffer a historic defeat in November, a National election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted the model, which uses unemployment disposable income and inflation to forecast election results predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide capturing just 35 percent of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the. Pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55 percent of the vote and it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century quote, it would take nothing short of an economic miracle for Pocket books to favor Trump, Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding the economy will be a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November. The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 19. 1970 - six, although two candidates lost the popular vote, but won the presidency in that span, including George W Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. But as I stated earlier, I think they're missing the cultural context and they're missing the causation of the economic woes. Here's Here's look if you think the American people are stupid and they wake up one day and the economy is bad. It's the President's fault. Okay. Trump will lose. I have a little bit more faith in the American people, two of to it it to to a a certain certain degree degree. to to be be honest. honest I think. I think they wake up and say. I had the best year of my life last year. I wanted it back. Let me tell you a story. I went to a furniture shop. I was picking up some some supplies for this year. New set up. We're doing a new show and the woman there told me that last year was the best year of her life in her career, I had someone coming up for landscaping Same things that last year was incredible the best year I've ever had in my life and guess what me too last year business was a booming things were going really well well and and that that was was the the Trump Trump economy economy. the pandemic hit and it. Donald Trump's fault. In fact, the shutdowns came from the governor's, not the President. you want to criticize the President. Maybe we should have shut down soon, but I'll tell you what right now. 300 small businesses in New York City are protesting demanding the economy be reopened. That's not a Republican city that is the Democrats stronghold protesting the Democratic mayor and Governor for shutting down the economy economy with with that that in in in mind. mind. mind. mind. Do Do do Do you you. you you really really really think think think the American people are going going to to look look to to Joe Joe Biden Biden Biden and and and say say say the the the the economy economy economy economy. is is is bad. bad. bad. bad. I'll I'll I'll I'll vote vote vote vote for for for for. the the the Democrat. Democrat. Democrat. I I think. think we're gonna see in big city. Democrats saying no way I mean, take a look at California's 20 fifth. It was Republican until the 2018 election. Katie Hill flipped it by nine points. It flipped back 21 points. The Culture war is going to play a major role in this and maybe this is why no one saw 2016 coming. Donald Trump won everyone said he wasn't gonna win. They didn't understand the cultural context of what was happening to our society and what. Happening now, CNN says Ohio and Missouri could flip to Democrats. Now this is where I'll say Republicans you best you best pay attention. Donald Trump is relatively unpopular with a lot of people. His approval rating for whatever reason is underwater, though he's currently, according to Gallup polling better than Obama did for the same time period, which does bode well for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton was extremely unpopular and they really underestimated just how much the average American hated her Joe Biden doesn't have that same. Of hate, Perhaps the reason they're propping up Joe Biden, a mindless blank candidate, is because they don't want anyone to feel anything about them. Maybe they're hoping you know what we can get somebody who's divisive and has a lot of support but a lot of hate or we get someone no one really cares about. That's what Iman actually win. and if you think if you think it couldn't happen that will be your downfall, let's read the National election model assumes and the economy is still in bad shape this fall with unemployment about 13 percent per capita, up 30 percent, Real per capita. Down nearly six percent from a year ago and abri and brief period of falling prices or deflation, the economy would still be in a worse state that at the depth of the Great Depression, a separate state based model run by Oxford economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral College by a margin of 320 to 210. That model forecast. That's seven battleground States will flip to Democrats, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and Carolina we would expect these States to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing Pocket-book vote. Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year it would have correctly predicted Trump's upset Electoral College victory as well as seven of the nine prior election since 1980. What they're saying, and this is fair, they're taking into consideration all of the factors of 2016 looking at what they got wrong and making a new model. Sorry, I still don't buy it. I really don't they go on to say. Is it too early to predict the election and that maybe it look new-york is saying all indications they're gonna reopen in June. We'll see we'll see that might give enough time for people to see a massive Boone in the stock market jobs going you know coming back magnificently people getting their jobs back, but we are gonna see permanent closures of small business now is that Donald Trump's fault. It's not so if the American American people people in in big big big cities, cities, cities, we're we're we're we're planning planning planning planning on on on on. voting. voting voting Democrat Democrat Democrat anyway, anyway, anyway, I I I don't don't don't see why people would would change change their their vote vote if. if people in swings. That are run by Democratic governors who were shut down lost their businesses. Why would they blame the Republican Party for this? I'm sorry? I just don't see the argument unless of course you look at people like mindless drones. Sure we'll take a look at this, The predicted models I'd like to take a look at how people are in terms of cash cuz that's a good indicator. People don't want to lose money right. It's not always the best indicator, but it's it's something something to to look look at at right right right now. now. now. Donald Donald Donald Donald Trump Trump Trump is is is favored favored favored favored to to to to win win. win win with with with a 49 percent chance of victory and Joe Biden. I should say it's a- 449 cents and then we have Joe Biden 46 cents. that's per share. It's it's complicated. but basically they're saying I think that basically they believe Donald Trump will Donald Trump is favored to win. That's the easiest way to put it, but he is very very, very, very close with Joe Biden now take a look at this story from the Washington Post. This This is is the the warning warning warning to to to Trump trump voters. Trump Trump voters voters Trump Biden voters voters could could decide decide the the the 2020 2020 2020 election election election. they they They They bring bring bring bring up up something. up up something something interesting. something something interesting interesting interesting that there's a group of of people people who who who are are are economically Progressive. economically economically economically Progressive Progressive Progressive Progressive, but but socially. but but socially socially conservative. socially conservative I. conservative I can I can. At this point of view, I remember back you know 10 or so years ago, it was it was people were the the outlier the libertarian types they were economically conservative and socially liberal, meaning they were much for civil rights. gay marriage things like that, but they opposed the rampant socialist type spending policies. Now we're seeing an inversion of this because of the Democratic Party going too far left. In my opinion, These are people who are economically Progressive, probably like the idea of a public option, maybe even leaning towards universal health care, but don't like. Overt social Justice breakdown of the family They want traditional family values these people don't want to vote for Donald Trump. These are not your traditional conservatives who feel this way Well, let's take a look at what's actually happening in New York because this I think this is significant, you wanna make an economic prediction about Donald Trump's voter base or what's gonna happen fine. I'm actually of the mindset that cities will remarkably swing There's a few reasons for this. absolutely I could be. On this one, I'm I'm I'm gonna be bold in this prediction, but take a look at the UK. The Conservatives one -A one -A record-breaking victory for those who aren't familiar December thirteenth quite some time ago or a relatively long time. It's you know considering this year's been extremely long, you have the conservatives winning in areas that hadn't voted conservative in a hundred years areas of big cities. my understanding that we're always lefty for the Conservative party and it was explained to me like imagine a district in New York voting Republican you'd be shocked. I mean New York City Well we're. A Trump loving Democrat, NY 15, the fifteenth Congressional District is poised to win. We'll see if it plays out, but we did see for the first time in two decades, a Blue district switch back to Republican that was historic. Perhaps now we will see something similar happening in this big cities like we saw in the UK. Keep in mind there have been a series of Democratic politicians and smaller local jurisdictions, notably in Pennsylvania who have switched from Democrat to Republican it keeps happening. Take a look at Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey's. I believe New Jersey second who ran as a Democrat. As a Democrat and then switch to the Republican Party over the impeachment fiasco, I think we are going to see a repeat of the UK here in the United States, Much like like we do with the Brexit vote. No one thought Brexit would win the UK votes to leave the European Union Boom Brexit victory. Three years later they voted for it again in massive numbers, so why would they now switch and not vote for Donald Trump? Why would the trend break? It's possible The pandemic nobody saw this coming. But it is Democratic governors who are shutting things down. Look at the story from the Daily Mail 23000 Dead New Yorkers and it's keeping up with the Cuomo chuckling brothers are slammed for CNN nasal swab joke while governor keeps silent on reopening. I kid you not the the Cuomo brothers laughing over these tests showing oversized novelty cotton swabs. This is what we get right now and you think they will blame Trump has been the one calling them the fake news and what do they give you on the. They laugh while your business suffers while you're locked in your home while your friends are losing their jobs, they're laughing with their joke. Prop Cotton swabs. That's the reasons to criticize Trump over his reaction of the crown of virus as well. But Trump wasn't the one who shut down your economy. That was Governor Cuomo. Of course, Trump was in favor of the lockdowns 15 days to slow the spread, but we're two months on and now Donald Trump for the longest time has been advocating for reopening, but we see the. Culture war resistance types on social media, saying we must remain closed forever. I'm sorry man. This is the front page of the New York Post new-york The New York Post and New York City's locked down now. the Big Apple is dying. Do you think these urban liberal types are gonna sit there and be like it's Trump's fault. This is happening. Some of them will for sure. a lot of them are gonna be run-of-the-mill people saying, like no, This is Cuomo's doing he kept kept us us locked locked down down way way too too long. long. Ron DeSantis did a good job. Relative to New-york Florida's not that bad South Dakota Christy Kym did a good job so they throw a parade. so why would this happen? It's entirely possible but I bring you now to my favorite my favorite thing here. Okay. We we don't know what's gonna happen. We really don't and my opinion Trump Republicans will win. I could be wrong. I could be bias. That's totally fair, but I have to question the media's incessant narrative. The Democrats are gonna win will 2020. Blue Wave Election year rights 530 - eight good question The only problem I have with it is that you said this on May eleventh two special elections on Tuesday could hinted another blue wave, You said. You told us if we see the Democrats do well, it will be a blue wave. I followed up that segment by asking now that the Republicans have crushed and obliterated the Democratic Party in this this districts districts will will will they they they now now now write write write write a story saying? a a a story story? story story saying saying saying Saying we have? we we we have seen evidence of a a Red Red Red wave. wave wave, wave, no once again. No No No once once again they. once once again, again, again they ignore what happened the the reality reality of of what's what's happening happening happening in in in front front front of of of their their their eyes and. their eyes. eyes eyes and And write another. and write another story. write another story. Well it be a blue. It's like they have amnesia. do these people not remember, perhaps they have a memory of a goldfish or perhaps they're lying to us. Perhaps what they're trying to do is sway the electorate to vote for how they want because it is true when Paul says So-and-so will win so and so will lose people vote for the winner. It's swings their vote. It is a fact, so I don't trust the media. They're saying Trump's gonna lose in a historical. you know landslide defeat. I don't buy it. I'm. You told us that in 2016, why should I trust you now? it's fair to point out the economy is bad, but come on. they're not gonna blame Trump for this. I bring you now to the nightmare reality that is the economic lockdown of the Democratic governors. I live in New Jersey. I am very close to analyst Jim where the police actually arrested a guy for working out. Take a look at this, she was selling items on Facebook Live police business owner. They shut her down a small business owner. To close her nonessential business says she has had several run-ins with police while she tried to make some money. The latest incident came while Catherine Hermes was conducting a shop from home style Facebook live video of her country home store in Downtown Burnsville, Hermes and a friend were inside the store, both not wearing masks showing off the products to viewers who can purchase them online. Police show up around nine PM on Tuesday and they shut her down her store was closed in the video. The police come to the door and say man you got shut down. You gotta close And she goes. We are closed. Can't you read the sign She went on Facebook. She was selling things on. Hold on Amazon sells things online and they do delivery, but the police came to her store. Sorry man. I am not convinced what's happening right now anything to do with the pandemic. I'm sorry. I can't tell you what it is, but I will tell you a lot of people believe that the Democratic governors of these States are trying to hurt the economy, hoping it'll stop Trump. That's a bit too conspiratorial for me. I think this Democratic governor has completely inept conspiracy aside. what do you think's gonna happen in Blue New Jersey when these people are like? Are you doing this to us? Why are the police coming to my store when we're close to shut me down? Why is Walmart seeing profits skyrocket allowed to stay open? Why is Amazon allowed to do this deliveries and you think they'll blame Trump for this Trump advocated for them, said liberate these States and I'll show you the hard data let's play with the polls the aggregate from real clear politics Trump approval rating on the economy 51 percent if the economy was gonna be a factor in Donald Trump's defeat, perhaps. Could be if people blamed him for it, which they don't they don't blame him for it. So while you keep sending your cops to small businesses to shut them down while that while the Republicans States are open, What do you think the Democratic voters are gonna be thinking when they look to South Dakota and they say this woman who runs this business? This is almost new-york Metro Burnsville up North Jersey. This is is is a blue, a blue state and you have this woman now who's trying to sell her wears on. The same as Amazon and the cops shut her down that is incredible. Meanwhile, she and everyone else can see what happened in Florida. Partial lockdown did it right? Some people say beaches opened up in Jacksonville did better than New-york Christine of South Dakota. They threw a parade for her. She refused to lock down the state. No no outbreak minor outbreak, not one of the worst not a hot spot. The people loved her for it. So what happens when you're a Democrat running a business in New York City one of the 300 businesses that is demanding the city reopened and. See the Republican districts and then Donald Trump comes along and says we're going to save your business and we're gonna bring back this great economy. They're gonna say please do it. Democrats strongholds CNN uncovered the story. I believe it was in Minnesota, always a blue district votes, local votes blue votes Democrat except for Donald Trump, According to Vox, Trump ran as a moderate, I think people can recognize what's happening. I think the average person is smarter than these Democrats would give them credit for and I think it's very. Why the economic model will be wrong, It doesn't take into account perceptions media culture. It just looks at the Hard number. so I'll reiterate my assessment and I wanna ride on five just a little bit more. It's it's when there's other presidents were were bringing about an economic crisis. It made sense that people blamed them for it, but the the coro viruses an act of nature. It's an act of God God so so people people are are are going going going to to to look look look at at at this this this and and and say. say say. we need a leader. And pull us out of this natural disaster. Well, Donald Trump did see a big boom his approval rating while he was doing press conferences, it did go down once they stopped covering his press conferences that we can see it spike a little bit, then went down a little bit, but I'll tell you what right now. Donald Trump's approval rating is teetering above where it was when he was first elected. It then dropped very much so and he's been enjoying very high. Favorability relatively high favorability, The New York Times, says his base. Than ever and the people know we have the Trump economy and it was great. Obama tried taking credit for it. I guess so my prediction is that in the coming months, we're gonna start seeing these economies reopen the economic forecast models gonna be proven wrong in two ways, First, the possible ways that when when the economy start reopening this particularly in the Red States, the blue States that are lagging behind. We're gonna see a lot of angry Democrats. Democrats. Their Their businesses businesses businesses are are are being being being shuttered shuttered shuttered by by by by this. this. this. this. this. they're they're they're they're gonna gonna gonna. gonna start start start becoming becoming becoming much much much more more more. conservative. conservative. I think people. Going to see the damage and you're gonna have a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Joe Biden, who stutters and scammers and doesn't know where he is and Donald Trump, who says we're gonna we're gonna bring back jobs. We're gonna you know, get your business up and running and it's got the numbers to prove it. They are going to run ad after ad of Donald Donald Trump Trump saving saving the the economy economy economy and and and the the the the ads ads. ads ads are are are gonna gonna gonna say say say say things things. things things like like for three three years, years, America America America enjoyed enjoyed enjoyed the the the most most most most prosperous prosperous prosperous. prosperous you you you you know know know. know Nation Nation Nation with with with the lowest unemployment with with a a rising rising rising wages wages wages wages. with with with a a a a record record record. record stock stock stock market until a a crisis crisis hit. hit. hit. No No No No one one one one saw saw saw saw it it. it it coming. coming. coming then then. then you'll you'll see see Nancy. Nancy Pelosi. When she was like come down and you know celebrating and in Chinatown, you're gonna see de Blasio saying we're not gonna shut down and it's not gonna be to blame the Democrats. It's gonna say it's gonna be to say that no one knew was coming and Donald Trump took quick action and the crisis hit the governor's locked down their state's businesses were destroyed and now Donald Trump is gonna wanna bring that back to you. He's got the track record for it. Joe Biden doesn't that's why I don't. I don't trust these models but to rag on 530 for the last time, this is the perfect example of what the media has. Doing to us in 2014 2015 2016, They didn't see the culture war coming. They didn't understand how we all felt they didn't understand how this would impact the political landscape and they still don't they have not learned a thing May eleventh could these elections Hi to the pin to the blue Wave May twentieth. Will we see a blue wave look at your own assessments? I'm sorry. They have the memory of goldfish and the critical thinking capacity of a goldfish as well, but I could be wrong. Okay, I was absolutely wrong. I thought there was gonna be a Red wave. I thought the Republicans were looking at even maybe a Super majority, but maybe it's because I'm ahead of the market. That's what I was told a long time ago by a journalist professor that techniques my style. I'm often out of the market. Maybe that's fair. I often I'm reading the news. I'm making predictions and maybe I'm I'm looking too far ahead too far ahead. So I'll wrap it up with this. The reason I was wrong in 2018 was because thought Trump's base would come out. I thought cultural sentiments. Play a role in the 2018 election and I was wrong The Trump voters didn't care for Republicans and now we're seeing this reflected in segments by Tucker Carlson and other conservatives where they go after some of these Republicans like Trey Trey Gowdy and Lindsey Graham for doing nothing during the Russia gate scandal and maybe then you understand why they lost in 2018 because it was about Trump. but these Republicans these Trump supporters learned their lesson by the Democrats claiming these are you know around 40 seats it impeach Donald Trump and now they know if they sit by and they don't come out. Trump will be removed. Democrats will not stop I think 2020 is going to be a it's the economic models. The polls are going to be obliterated First 2016 was wrong. They tried to correct. I don't think they'll be right this time, but maybe I will be wrong. Maybe I will be wrong and I'm open to it. Look. I'm just one dude who reads things on the Internet talks about how I feel. I think many of you may agree with my assessment. Maybe maybe many of you feel the same way and I'm sure there are many of you who disagree with my assessment and think I'm completely wrong and that's it. It's just normal political discourse. I think they're wrong, they think. All that matters is the people who want to vote show up in November. If you hate Trump and you don't show up, you will lose if you like Trump and you don't show up you will lose but more importantly, if you think you're guaranteed to win either that you know, Biden will win Trump, Trump will win and you sit on your hands. It's over. I didn't think I'd be I'd be you know 67 years ago. I never thought I'd be saying this. I think think we we may may see see see record record record voter voter voter turnout. turnout turnout like like. a record-breaking. Turn out the Trump army showing up in droves to to to stamp that paper to pull that letter smack that button and the anti-trump resistance doing the same thing. But we'll see there's a lot of reasons to suggest in my opinion. What I see when I read the news that Trump should win in a landslide, no matter what I think the economy doesn't even matter at this point, we'll see I got more segments coming up for you at Six PM YouTube dot com slash Tims News Thanks for hanging out and I will see you all then.